As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article
from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode
where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market
, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart
of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green
), German 2-year bond yields (black
) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue
) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge
is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!",
the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here
. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned
that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch
Nicholas extracts a chart
by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported
on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
These days, all my friends are very anxious. I heard that they stay up till 3am working on the blockchain, sending ICOs, talking about things like “if it rises or falls within the range of 50%, it’s called a stable sideways move”, and “the profit rate will at least be 100 times”. They also talk about the next-generation Internet, the greatest technology revolution since the Industrial Revolution. So, how does this decentralized blockchain influence our life?
Before we talk about the challenge of decentralization, we have to figure out why the challenge of decentralization exists.
Things after a long period of division, tend to unite; after a long period of union, tend to divide.
It is believed in China that “domains under heaven, after a long period of division, tend to unite; after a long period of union, tend to divide.” This rule applies not only to history, but also to the development of the Internet industry.
In the past, the Internet was only used to make phone calls and was monopolized by one or two large companies. This was because of the circuit switching technology back then. If we look back to even earlier age, we’ll find that people had to use manual wiring. Such low level of technology determines that the network at that time can only be centralized.
But the improvement of technology always leads to the new round of decentralization. The invention of the TCP/IP protocol gave an impetus to the arrival of the Internet era. As packet switching took the place of circuit switching, information could get around freely. Under such circumstances, it was simply impossible for one single company to monopolize the the resources of the entire network. It brought us the era of decentralization. Many portal sites and personal blogs came into being, and everyday there were newborn projects plunging into the great tide of the times.
This state of decentralization lasted for a while, then new problems appeared — information was difficult to search
Driven by this demand, search engines and super APPs became the new centers of the whole system. However, based on the data and portals that they had, these apps could collect more data. This is how centralization got to the era of cloud computing and big data.
Just as the time when TCP/IP made the world decentralized. Today, the new technology of blockchain has once again led the world to an era when centralization gives its way to decentralization.
Blockchain, Value Network and Consensus
Many years ago, I had thought, “Why can’t I just put my money into a file folder, in which each file represents a certain value, and when I send someone else a file, I simply transfer my money to him?” It is a pity that this idea could not be achieved by traditional Internet. The traditional Internet is a net of information and can only transmit the copies of those information. However, value, is not easy to transmit. But the birth of blockchain has totally changed the game and made it possible for value to be transferred, just as information is transmitted. This is the magic and charm of blockchain.
Transactions on the blockchain can only be generated by the user’s private key, and once they are recorded by the blockchain, they are impossibly to be changed. Based on the consensus of certain mathematical principles, people can trade with everyone without trusting them. Where there is consensus, there is possibility of cooperation.
All the wars and tragedies in human history are nothing but the result of the failed consensus. After the financial tsunami in 2008, almost at the same time, two people thought of a solution to all trust problems in the world.
l A Chinese and a Japanese
l Ge You and his invention, the conflict resolution terminal
l Satoshi Nakamoto and his invention, blockchain
I have explained to others what blockchain is for a million times —
- It’s a distributive ledger.
- It’s a decentralized application.
- It’s a consensus platform.
- It’s cryptocurrency
- It’s token economy.
I was totally enjoying my explanation, and the listeners were always like “What on earth are you talking about? Can you stop speaking Greek?”
Let’s watch an interesting video first. it’s called “Ge You and his conflict resolution terminal”. After that I’ll explain what blockchain actually is.
Ge You is a famous Chinese comedian actor, and I mention him here just for fun. In this movie, his conflict resolution terminal only has two nodes, and simply by this, he defrauds another man to bankruptcy. We can just give it a laugh.
We can understand blockchain in this way: it is a conflict resolution terminal that countless people can participate at the same time. It can seal all the transaction contracts collectively, and no sealed participants can withdraw their transactions. One particular feature about the seal is that it’s a very complex paging seal, so that no one can change the data in it.
Using his knowledge in cryptography and POW algorithm, Nakamoto really implemented such a conflict resolution terminal. The world’s top scientists and mathematicians have verified the solidity of this theory, and after nearly ten years of running tests, nothing wrong has ever happened. And its value has increased by millions of times.
Well, I also admire Mr.Ge and his efforts for world peace.
The challenge brought by decentralization
OK I’ll skip the chitchat and go back today’s theme, the challenge of decentralization.
The challenge of technology development
Change is the only constant in life. Technology is updated and renewed everyday, and so is the technology of decentralization.
Because of its trustworthiness by nature, many systems that requires an intermediary to increase credibility are strongly impacted, such as banks, insurance industry, and lottery industry. Beside that, due to decentralization and anonymity, decentralization will impact existing industry rules in many gray dark-web trades or in the field where the law is lagging.
From the perspective of security, any problems caused by the high centralization can have great social consequences.These days, Facebook is facing a 2-trillion-dollar fine for its data breach, which is a wake-up call for everyone. As for China, let’s just imagine how our life will be impacted if Tencent or Alibaba or any other Internet industry giants go wrong.
With the commercialization of 5G technology and the explosive growth of IOT devices, the Internet traffic has shown an exponential increase. The asynchronous growth of the terminal devices and the server is a bottleneck that all centralized processing systems will eventually face.
The challenge of awareness.
We can catch up when our technology is left behind, but we will forever be stuck in the past if our mind is left behind.
Many of us have a belief that the society in which we are living, was, should be, and always will be what it is now. It’s not true.
The money you are using is not actually your own money.
The money we use today has not always been the same. In fact, it is only a few decades old. Before the Bretton Woods system collapsed, it required equivalent value of gold as the credit guarantee to issue currency. And nowadays, we always see news like the following:
1）The U.S. national debt has exceeded 20 trillion U.S dollars. 2）Xiong’an New Area received 100 billion yuan of credit. 3）China Merchants Bank grants 4 billion yuan of credit to Anbang Insurance Group
4）Anbang Insurance Group granted 10 billion yuan of credit to Guangyuan
If you can understand that national debt and credit are the same as direct currency printing, you can understand that the money you use is actually not your own money.
Blockchain is a bubble. So is the very essence of currency itself.
The reason why the release of TOKEN is so popular is that people for the first time actually realize that the essence of currency is credit. Credit, however can be created by media packaging and celebrity platform. And TOKEN is human’s first try to issue currency by blockchain. In the past, it took real guts to do such things. People who can understand it, will be zealous for it. People who don’t, call it fraud.
Companies, have not always been like their current form. Actually, in the future, they might even disappear.
Economic rules tell us that the transaction cost is the reason why company exists. A company will eventually grow to a state in which the company’s transaction costs and management costs are in balance. After that, the expansion of the company will lead to the increase in management costs. However, in the future blockchain world, the transaction of costs will inevitably converge to zero. Can companies still find their reasons to exist at that time? It’s not a long time since the first company came into being. So I would like to say that, the demise of the form of companies will not be far in the future.
In terms of market value, bitcoin market value is over $190 billion, exceeding Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, as well as Boeing.
In terms of trading volume, some bitcoin companies such as Binance, OKEX and Huobi have almost reached the scale of the China A shares.
And here comes DAO, Distributed Autonomous Organization. In the future, more and more companies will be community-oriented on the base of blockchain. Also, there will be more start-up companies choosing to finance by blockchain and operate as a community directly.
Different people will have different feelings and understandings even when watching the same TV series. I watched a Chinese TV series called “Nothing Gold Can Stay”. It led me to think that, in the era of emerging capitalism, how greatly the traditional family business was impacted by the new production relations of the companies. The protagonist Zhou Ying, richest women in her province, failed not because she did not do well, but because the backward production methods dragged her down to the inevitable tragedy. Similarly, in the future, it’s not because that you are not good enough, nor your company is not good enough, but because more and more companies change their patterns and choose a decentralized and community-based mode.
Challenge of the society
The law always lags. Code is the (new) law.
The laws in almost in every country stipulate that users’ data on the Internet only belongs to the users themselves. Companies like Huawei and WeChat also claim that the data belongs to the users. But they know clearly that the data belongs to whoever has access to it.
Facebook, as well, claims that they will protect the user’s data. However, things turns out that they sell the data to whoever pay them.
All software has user authorization and agreement terms, but who will actually read it? What’s the point of reading? Since the law is merely a useless ceremony thing.
There are hundreds of laws about company governance and financing, but how does it do with decentralized communities?
The law stipulates that whoever commits a fraud over a certain amount of money will be put into jail. But in reality, there are people who just defraud billions of dollars by using the blockchain, and the law can do nothing about it.
The country is also a form of relation of production
Chinese students have learned about the relations of production since primary school. I’m not very good at it, so I won’t dig too deep.
Today, we are living in a centralized society, working in a centralized company, getting paid with the temporary coinage issued by the centralized system and imagining the challenges that decentralization will bring to our lives. Of course, our biggest goal is to make a better and fairer society by blockchain, where everyone will have more new opportunities.
In the end, I’d like to end up my speaking with a song. It’s called “ Song of Blockchain”. Hope you enjoy it.
— — — — — — — — End — — — — — — — — —
Blockchain technology and applications expert, one of Bitcoin’s first miners, founding developer of the Hero mobile cross-platform framework, president of the Hero Council. Formerly @ Wind, The9, and Dianrong, where he was heavily involved in the development of Dianrong’s blockchain applications.
Previously spent many years developing the Hero framework and blockchain applications. In 2017, meshed the two together to create Hero Node, aimed at making distributed applications easy to develop for everyone. Staunch believer in a better future with distributed applications.
In an open world, Hero Node welcomes any and all feedback. Especially helpful feedback will be rewarded!
Talk to us: Email: [email protected]
Twitter: Hero Node
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